Market Analysis: Consolidate The Positive Trend Of Cotton Textile Industry
The cotton textile industry is a traditional competitive industry in China, which has a good foundation for development, strong international competitiveness, high market share, and complete industrial chain. The data of tracking "key enterprises" and "key clusters" released by the China Cotton Textile Industry Association recently shows that the main economic indicators of the cotton textile industry in the first four months of this year have improved compared with the first three months. For a long time, China's cotton textile industry has created a large number of jobs, provided consumers with high-quality clothing, and led the upstream and downstream industries to flourish, playing an important role in the national economy.
As a major cotton textile industry and textile export country in the world, the development of China's cotton textile industry is closely related to the global economic situation, and is also sensitive to changes in the international trade environment. In recent years, the global macro-economic situation is complex and changeable. The epidemic situation, the Ukrainian crisis, high international inflation and other factors have had a serious impact on the world economy, and the global consumer market has also been greatly affected. In the complex and severe global economic situation, China's cotton textile industry has also been affected to a certain extent. For a period of time, the cotton textile industry has experienced a slowdown in the growth of major economic indicators, a decline in profits, and an expansion of losses.
Although the development of the cotton textile industry still faces some hidden worries, it is gratifying that China's consumer market has recovered steadily after the epidemic, which has significantly enhanced its support for the healthy development of the cotton textile industry. From January to April this year, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 8.5% on a year-on-year basis, with the growth rate rising month by month. With the recovery of the consumer market, the potential of China's super large market is rapidly emerging, and the advantages of a strong domestic market continue to show. Driven by the recovery of domestic consumption, the development of cotton textile industry has maintained a stable and good trend. According to the data of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, from January to April, although the operating income, export delivery value, industrial added value, and profit of key enterprises in the cotton textile industry fell slightly compared with the same period last year, the decline has narrowed significantly, and the cumulative year-on-year decline of relevant indicators has narrowed by 3.67, 2.03, 6.05, and 14.93 percentage points respectively from January to March. In terms of exports, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of export delivery value of key clusters of cotton textile industry in the first four months has become positive.
The stabilizing trend of the cotton textile industry is also reflected in the price of raw materials. Since the second quarter, the domestic cotton price has risen steadily. From the beginning of April to the first ten days of June, the main contract price of Zheng Merchants Exchange cotton futures rose significantly. On the whole, the domestic market has played a "ballast" role in the steady development of the textile industry. Positive factors in the cotton textile industry continue to accumulate, and enterprises are gradually emerging from the predicament.
In the future, the cotton textile industry will still face some uncertainties. To promote high-quality development of the industry, it is necessary to play a good role in policy guidance. At the same time, enterprises should also practice their internal skills, grasp the market opportunities and actively respond to various challenges.
We should give full play to the role of policy guidance, focus on innovation, quality, brand, industrial chain safety, etc., and build a policy system conducive to the high-quality development of the cotton textile industry. First, stimulate the innovation vitality of cotton textile enterprises and improve the technical level of the whole industry. We will focus on relying on the industry's national manufacturing innovation center, national key laboratory, national enterprise technology center, etc., break through key core technologies, and continue to enhance the independent and controllable ability of the industrial chain. The second is to strengthen the quality brand construction and guide enterprises to continuously improve the added value of products. Comply with the trend of individualization, differentiation and facilitation, vigorously develop functional fiber materials, promote the construction of quality standards led by new technologies, cultivate Guochao brands, and enhance the recognition, reputation and influence of domestic brands. The third is to continuously improve the tenacity and safety level of the cotton textile industry chain supply chain. Continuously optimize the cotton production layout, improve the technical level of planting, processing, inspection and other links, improve the warehousing and logistics infrastructure, and strive to improve the resilience and safety level of the industrial chain in the whole chain and process.
We should also give full play to the role of enterprises as the main body, encourage enterprises to speed up their digital transformation, take the development path of winning with quality, constantly improve their technical level and anti risk ability, improve their business performance, and consolidate the foundation for upgrading the industrial foundation and modernization of the industrial chain. We need to accelerate the pace of digital transformation, improve the level of information management, apply more digital technology in production and manufacturing, quality management, warehousing and logistics, cost control, marketing and other links, and promote the integration of digital technology with the original industry technologies such as textiles, clothing, printing and dyeing, embroidery and so on. The industrial technology level should be improved, the application of new raw materials and the development of new products should be strengthened, especially the innovation ability in green materials, green technology, green products, low-carbon management, etc., and the global competitiveness of the industry should be improved under the guidance of advanced technology and green ideas. We also need to improve our ability to resist risks, and do a good job in risk management in combination with changes in the macro-economy and industry situation. Qualified enterprises can actively use futures and options to hedge market risks, and comprehensively use the "insurance+futures" tool to do a good job in risk management.
(Liu Zhicheng, Director and Researcher of the Research Office of the Market Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics)
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