Cottonseed Meal Has Entered The "Right Track" Of Being Led By The Soybean Meal.

Domestic breeding performance in the fourth quarter is still not good, and along with the gradual supply of cottonseed meal supply, cottonseed meal has entered the "right track" of being led by soybean meal. "At present, the difference between Shandong's 46% protein cottonseed meal and 43% protein soybean meal is about 400 yuan / ton, and the price difference is relatively stable."

At present, the shortage of soybean meal is gradually easing. From the market of soybean meal, we can see that the late rising power is insufficient. The limited space will make the cottonseed meal market under pressure, and the cottonseed meal as an alternative product can hardly be improved.

In addition, with the gradual reduction of temperature, the demand for aquaculture feed has gradually shrunk, while stocking stocks for aquatic products generally appear after new year's day. Support is far too far, but cottonseed meal is the largest proportion of cottonseed processing output, only a short line.

High prices, almost no pressure on inventory, so that manufacturers still have a strong desire to price, short term cottonseed meal in the late or down.

Due to the gradual increase in the start-up rate of the oil plant and the increase in the supply of cotton hull, this year, the downstream growers are not making much profit. Therefore, the demand for cotton shells has not improved. The oil factory has been selling at a high price. Currently, the mainstream quotation of the cotton shell in the mainland is at 2200 yuan / ton, and the small cotton shell is 2500 yuan / ton, and the Xinjiang cotton shell is quoted at 1300 yuan / ton, which is still at a high level compared with the same period in previous years.

The purchasing capacity and consumption of the whole downstream edible fungi breeding enterprises are still acceptable, but the high price of cotton shells will inevitably lead to the high price of edible fungi. The sales situation after the emergence of mushrooms will have the most powerful restraining effect on the cotton shell price, and the substitution products such as corncob granule, bagasse and sawdust will also affect the market demand of the cotton hull.

Up to now, the domestic cotton acquisition and processing progress is still relatively slow, and the demand for most of the varieties is weak. Therefore, the market price and the upstream products have a larger gap. Most of the distributors are not profitable or even in a state of loss. The enthusiasm of entering the market is not high, which makes the cotton supply and demand pressure less, and supports the stability of the market.

At present, cottonseed supply is still insufficient in China, exploring its root cause, because in recent years, the cotton planting area has dropped significantly, and the supply of cottonseed has been reduced in the mainland. And this year, the overall picking rate has slowed down compared with the previous years.

With the gradual increase of start-up rate of oil plants and insufficient supply of cotton seeds in the mainland, the mainland oil refineries went to Xinjiang to purchase cotton seeds for processing cotton seeds in Xinjiang. However, on the one hand, the funds of the ginning mills in the territory had not been significantly relieved, the processing was blocked, and the bank loans were tightened. The output of cottonseed was still limited, and the price of the cotton ginning plants in the territory was quite strong. On the other hand, the cotton linter continued to rise in November, the purchasing enthusiasm of the oil factory continued to decrease, and the price of the cotton mill was very high, resulting in a slight rise in the price of cottonseed.

At present, the Shandong cottonseed processing plant, which has maintained its operation, accounts for more than 90% of Xinjiang cottonseed. However, along with the listing of jujube and apple in southern Xinjiang, freight has become an important factor affecting the price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. It is expected that before the Spring Festival, the overall freight rate will show an upward trend. Cotton seed processing enterprises are suffering from raw materials procurement. Generally speaking, if the processing of cotton gowns in the hinterland can be processed, cotton seeds may be slipped.

On the other hand, the paction price of Xinjiang cottonseed to the mainland will be relatively lower.

From the perspective of the external oil market, under the pressure of external disk oil and uncertainty of the external environment, the recent three major domestic oil futures markets have dropped, and spot prices have varied.

From the perspective of its own market, the rate of start-up of the oil plant has increased, but it is still lower than that of the same period last year, and the price of cottonseed has risen slightly, and the acquisition of oil factory is somewhat cautious. Therefore, the price of oil factory will not decrease.

Specifically, the quotations from all parts of the country are generally priced at 6600 yuan / ton in the mainstream production of grade three cottonseed oil in Shandong. The price of three grade cotton oil in Yuanshi County, Shijiazhuang, Hebei is about 6350 yuan / ton, and the price of three grade cotton oil in North Xinjiang is 6100 yuan / ton, and the three grade cotton oil in the southern Xinjiang is quoted at 6000 yuan / ton.

It is expected that the main trend of domestic cotton oil market will be concentrated in the late stage. The main reasons are as follows: the market is waiting for this week's US monthly supply and demand report and general election announcement. As the fourth quarter is the peak season for oil demand, the results of external impact are being digested by the market, and the oil market is still promising. Therefore, the trend of domestic oils and fats plays a leading role in the cotton oil market.

In the early stage, the downstream chemical fiber and refined cotton factories will not buy high priced short staple, and many more.

Pressure continues to increase, chemical plant start-up processing rate is limited, port import lint to supplement the domestic market, early stage has been digesting inventory, recent downstream chemical fiber and refined cotton plant procurement has become active, but the new short pile output is very limited, the old short pile inventory consumption is finished, manufacturers price psychology gradually increased.

At present, the price of food grade short staple in the mainland of Hebei has risen to 7200 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last week, and Shandong mixed road down is about 7000 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton compared with last week, and the price of mixed Dao hair in Shanxi and Shaanxi area is around 6500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last week.

In recent years, short staple prices have risen too fast and prices are high. But downstream chemical fiber factories and refined cotton mills consider their own processing costs and interests, and the enthusiasm for acquisitions gradually diminishes, and the chase is more cautious. Therefore, cotton lint is sold at a relatively high price.

In the later stage, the advantages of domestic cotton lint products are not reduced, and it is hard to fall sharply. Meanwhile, the new cotton lint is still needed for a large amount of output.