From The Supply Side To Suppress The "Pig Cycle" Six Departments To Create A "Safety Chain" Of Pork Supply

On August 6, the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of ecological environment, the Ministry of Commerce and the banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the opinions on promoting the sustainable and healthy development of the pig industry (hereinafter referred to as the opinions)《 It is suggested that in 5-10 years, a new pattern of high-quality development of pig industry with high output efficiency, product safety, resource saving, environment-friendly and effective regulation and control will be basically formed.

The specific objectives include: the competitiveness of pig industry has been greatly improved, the ability of disease prevention and control has been significantly enhanced, the policy guarantee system has been basically improved, the cyclical fluctuation of the market has been effectively alleviated, the security guarantee ability of pork supply has been continuously enhanced, and the self-sufficiency rate has been maintained at about 95%.

Wei Xin, a researcher at the agricultural products business department of China Securities construction investment futures, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that the opinions have just been released and have not been detailed to the implementation level of details, but more about the overall direction of the policy. In the past, China used more "pig food price ratio" to adjust the "pig cycle". Now, we propose the regulation and control of live pigs and reproducible sows, which means that the state's regulation of "pig cycle" is further strengthened.

"Before the outbreak of African swine fever, China's pork self-sufficiency rate could reach 95%, but after the outbreak of African swine fever, it dropped to 89% - 90%. With the recovery of production capacity, the self-sufficiency rate of pork can be restored." Wei Xin said.

Liu sikui, senior researcher of agricultural products of Zhongyuan futures, told reporters of the 21st century economic report that China is a big country of pork consumption, and the proportion of pork consumption in the whole meat is the highest. Therefore, it is necessary to ensure the stability and safety of pig production both from the perspective of residents' consumption and the impact of pork price fluctuation on the industry.

Suppress "pig cycle"

After experiencing a round of big rises and falls, the current price of live pigs fluctuates around 15-16.5 yuan / kg.

The price of live pigs was 15.43 yuan / kg on August 6, down slightly from 16.13 yuan / kg on July 6, according to China pig network. Some experts pointed out that the cost of self breeding pigs is generally around 17 yuan / kg, and the cost of large-scale farmers is lower, but the probability of small and medium-sized individual farmers losing money during this period is greater.

"In recent years, as the price of live pigs has dropped more than before, some farmers have lost money, some farmers lack short-term capital flow, and even eliminate sows from breeding. If this continues, a new pig cycle will start again Wei Xin said.

The Opinions also pointed out that the problem of large-scale fluctuations in production capacity, which has long plagued the development of the pig industry, has not yet been fundamentally solved. After the recovery of production capacity, the market price has fallen into a downturn again, some pig farms (households) have lost money, some local policies have been repeated, and the foundation for stable production and supply of pigs is still not solid.

What to do《 According to the opinion, long-term support policies for pig production should be stabilized, including stabilizing pig loan policy, improving pig policy insurance, and continuously optimizing environmental management services.

In addition, the opinion also proposes to establish a counter cyclical regulation mechanism for pig production. One of the key points is to maintain a reasonable level of breeding sows“ During the period of the 14th five year plan, the number of sows that can be reproduced in China is stable at about 43 million pigs, and the minimum quantity of sows is no less than 40 million. In the follow-up period, dynamic adjustments are made according to changes in pork consumption and sow reproduction rate.

Wei Xin pointed out that it can be seen from the "opinions" that the key point is to ensure the stability of the supply side. In particular, due to the impact of African swine fever in the early stage, the pork supply was insufficient, which affected the whole pig breeding market and led to great price fluctuations. The policy guidance is to hope that the whole pig breeding industry will come out of the "pig cycle" of the big rise and fall.

Liu sikui said that in the past, the policy of stabilizing the price of pork was the pork collection and storage system, which regulated the pig price from the consumer side. However, this time, the "opinion" is to regulate and control the pig price from the production side, which requires the state to support the pig breeding enterprises from all aspects, including the support of certain funds, so that the farmers can tide over the difficulties. This is also conducive to the suppression of the "pig cycle" in the trough, after the strength of the rebound in pig prices, maintain the stability of pig prices.

Build supply "safety chain"

China is a big country of pork production and consumption. From the overall meat production of China, the proportion of pork has been more than 50%.

However, affected by African swine fever, pork production declined: according to the National Bureau of statistics, in 2016, China's total meat production was 86.2833 million tons, of which 54.2549 million tons were pork, accounting for 62.88% of the total meat production; In 2020, the total output of meat in China will be 77.4838 million tons, including 41.1333 million tons of pork, accounting for 53.08%.

In the process of the decline of pork production, many small and medium-sized pig farms withdrew from the ranks of pig breeding. The "opinions" also focused on the stability of the number of large-scale pig farms. It was proposed that the large-scale farms (households) with more than 500 heads per year should be included in the national pig farms system for record, and their production and operation should be dynamically monitored to maintain the overall stability of the number of scale farms (households). It is not allowed to demolish large-scale farms (households) illegally. If it is necessary to demolish them, all localities should arrange land for breeding to support their reconstruction in other places.

Wei Xin pointed out that the annual output of 500 farms is actually small scattered farmers. The opinions put forward that large-scale farms (households) with annual output of more than 500 heads should be included in the national pig farm system for record, and that illegal demolition is not allowed. These objectives are to maintain stable production capacity.

Liu sikui pointed out that after the development of China's pig industry in recent years, the degree of scale has been greatly improved, but it has not reached the higher scale degree abroad. After the outbreak of African swine fever, there was a big fluctuation in pork prices in China. It can be found that small and medium-sized retail investors play an important role as a "reservoir" of the market, which can stabilize pig prices to a certain extent, so it is necessary to strengthen control.

In addition, the "opinions" also proposed to continuously promote the modernization of the pig industry, including the coordinated development of large-scale farms and small and medium-sized farms (households), and the construction of modern pig breeding industry.

All kinds of measures are to enhance the security of pork supply in China. Wei Xin pointed out that the objectives of the "opinions" include the continuous improvement of pork supply security guarantee capacity. There is a fundamental factor in this, which is the safety of agricultural products.

"China's breeding costs are not cheap, feed and labor are relatively expensive, and the degree of mechanization is not high enough. If we compete under the global free economic system, we will not have much advantage compared with the United States and Brazil. However, the safety of agricultural products is related to national security, so we need to give more support, including breakthroughs in resources and breeding, It will also support large enterprises to develop production and ensure the safety of Chinese pork consumption. " Wei Xin said.