Inventory Of Hainan'S First Sale Of Existing Houses: The Market Structure Has Changed Dramatically After 10 Months

On December 20, Hainan Provincial Department of housing and urban rural development announced that since Hainan announced the pilot project of affordable housing construction in April this year, 10 projects of affordable commercial housing have been started, with a total of 9756 units under construction. The pricing is significantly lower than the market price of commercial housing.

In March this year, Hainan made it clear that the newly sold land for commercial housing construction, implemented the existing housing sales system, and became the first province in China to propose housing sales. On the evening of March 7, the general office of Hainan provincial Party committee and the general office of the provincial government printed and issued the notice on the establishment of the urban subject responsibility system for the steady and healthy development of the real estate market (hereinafter referred to as the notice). The circular includes three important policies, namely, the development of affordable commercial housing, the implementation of the policy of restricting the purchase of multiple housing units for local residents, and the implementation of the existing housing sales system of commercial housing.

The Hainan provincial government has made it clear that the purpose of developing comfortable housing is to allow eligible local families and talents to purchase a house at a price suitable for their own income level, so as to truly enjoy the construction dividend of Hainan free trade port.

More than half a year later, Hainan's real estate market structure has quietly changed, and the layout of large real estate enterprises in Hainan has also been adjusted. The market share of large real estate enterprises has been reduced, but Hainan's real estate investment index has risen, and industry reshuffle is inevitable.

It can be said that for the housing enterprises accustomed to high turnover, under the background of the three red lines, Hainan market has doubled the pressure on the real estate enterprises. The pressure source is not only the sales of existing houses, but also the key to force the real estate enterprises to create high-end products by vigorously developing the policy of comfortable housing.

Under the current housing sales, real estate enterprises should first face the slow development cycle. In the past year, the transaction volume of Hainan real estate market has also declined rapidly. From the perspective of commercial residential transactions, the number of transaction units dropped by 34.9% from January to October this year.

"There has been a top five real estate enterprises in the industry planning to exit the Hainan market." An industry insiders said that Hainan's existing housing sales had an immediate impact on the market and real estate enterprises.

Existing housing sales + pilot construction of comfortable housing

After the announcement of the sale of existing houses in March, Hainan Province announced the relevant policies for the sale of affordable housing at the end of April this year. It is a policy guarantee to make it clear that the affordable commercial housing is mainly sold to households without housing or whose per capita housing area is not up to the average level; the sales target, sales price, flat area and transfer conditions are limited; and the government led and market-oriented operation mode is adopted The nature of commercial housing.

Since then, six cities and counties, including Haikou, Sanya and Danzhou, have rapidly started the pilot construction of comfortable housing. At the same time, the special housing security plan for primary education and health personnel will be implemented in the province through the way of comfortable housing. Hainan plans to basically solve the housing problem of primary school teachers and medical personnel in about three years.

According to reports, as of December 20, Hainan Province has completed 14 pieces of 937.52 Mu residential commercial housing land transfer work, six pilot cities and counties have started, including 4 projects in Haikou (3340 sets in total), 2 projects in Sanya (3450 sets in total), and 1606 sets in other non pilot cities and counties.

It is understood that the land transfer mode of comfortable housing in Hainan is "price restriction and land price competition". The sales price shall not exceed 10 times of the price to income ratio or 60% of the average price of the local commercial housing market, which shall be determined by the pilot cities and counties according to the actual situation. The basic level teachers and medical staff buy comfortable housing relatively more preferential.

In addition to the preferential price, the land for sale is also located in the mature supporting areas. For example, the changxiushijia project, one of the affordable housing projects in Haikou, has mature supporting facilities for businesses, hospitals and primary and secondary schools. The developer will also build a 12 class kindergarten, which will be handed over to the government as a public kindergarten free of charge. In terms of price, the overall average price of the residential area is 20% - 30% cheaper than that of the surrounding commercial houses; the house type of Haikou Yaogu north project is mainly 60-80 square meters, and the price is not more than 12000 yuan / square meter.

At present, some leading real estate enterprises, such as Vanke, have participated in the construction of Hainan Anju housing project. At present, the first affordable commercial housing project in Sanya City, Vanke Yazhou Anju housing project, has been started. A total of 922 housing units can be provided by 8 residential buildings, and the price limit is 9500 yuan / m2.

The person in charge of the Department of housing and urban rural development of Hainan Province said that Hainan requires the pilot cities and counties that have already transferred land to start construction as soon as possible, and those cities and counties with slow progress will be informed in time. At the same time, strengthen the supervision of the whole construction process to ensure the quality and safety of the project. At present, the Department of housing and urban rural development guides all cities and counties to formulate and promulgate the relevant management measures and implementation rules of comfortable housing type commercial housing as soon as possible according to the actual situation, announce the implementation to the society in a timely manner, and respond to social concerns.

A person in the industry pointed out that Hainan has also had a comfortable housing policy in the past. At present, commercial housing only accounts for about 20% - 30% of the new residential buildings in Hainan, and the rest are affordable housing or affordable housing.

Since January 4, 2010, the State Council issued the "several opinions of the State Council on promoting the construction and development of Hainan International Tourism Island", the construction of Hainan International Tourism Island has officially entered the right track, and the regulation and control of the real estate market has also been carried out closely. One is that local governments have increased their efforts in land supply.

From January to October 2020, the new land supply of Hainan Province is 19039.70 mu, with a year-on-year increase of 89.32%, and the newly increased transaction volume is 11038.34 mu, with a year-on-year increase of 61.05%; the commercial land still occupies the leading position according to the buildable area. Therefore, the proportion of commercial housing that can be sold in Hainan is not high. However, the sale of existing houses and the introduction of the policy of restricting the purchase of all over the country and the policy of comfortable housing have set a higher threshold for the removal of commercial housing.

Between the advance and retreat of real estate enterprises

Ding Yao, an analyst with Tongce Research Institute, believes that the structural changes of Hainan market are manifested in two aspects: first, the transformation from the main cultural tourism industry to urban real estate, and the scale of residential real estate has shrunk significantly; second, the price of residential land is high, the supply is strictly controlled, and a large number of affordable housing are built. In the future, ordinary commercial housing will fall into the second tier, and the market will be divided by luxury housing and affordable housing Under the support of the free trade port policy, commercial real estate leaps to the front line.

According to the data from the third-party institutions, in 2020, the housing market of Haikou City is in the first place with the support of rigid demand, accounting for about 41% of the total transactions, and the residential market is seriously shrinking, accounting for about 27% of the total turnover. The market structure is transforming from residence to urban real estate, and the overall turnover of the whole province will drop by 31.12%.

Ding Yao pointed out that the reason why cultural tourism retreated to the second tier was that Hainan implemented a nationwide purchase restriction, which made it difficult for outsiders to buy, resulting in the collapse of all cultural and tourism projects in Hainan.

One fact is that in the past year (October 2019 to October 2020), the transaction volume of commercial residential buildings in Haikou reached the peak in January 2020, accounting for 34.35%; after falling to the trough of 5% in April, the transaction gradually recovered and gradually rose to 29.45% until October this year. Under the relatively closed trading market factors of real estate regulation and international tourism island, the supply-demand relationship of Hainan market also shows a negative growth trend. From January to October of 2019, the island will supply 6.358 million square meters with a transaction of 6.068 million square meters; from January to October of this year, the supply will be 6.2708 million square meters, and the transaction volume will be only 4.5509 million square meters.

By the end of October 2020, the supply-demand ratio of Haikou housing market is 0.83, the inventory has dropped to 2.31 million square meters, and the de chemical cycle has gradually climbed to 11 months; Sanya has a longer deionization cycle, which is 32 months.

According to people familiar with the matter, due to the slow development cycle, some top five developers in the industry are ready to give up the Hainan market. It is worth noting that Hainan residential land price is partly due to the rise of construction and installation costs. At present, the land transaction floor price in Hainan is between 8000 yuan and 12000 yuan / m2, and the future sales price of existing houses is expected to be between 25000 yuan and 30000 yuan / m2. At the same time, the price of small affordable housing is limited from 10800 yuan to 15000 yuan / m2, gradually monopolizing the rigid demand market.

Hainan government's regulation and control on the supply side has resulted in less land supply and high price, and the policy of free trade port stimulates the prospect trend. Real estate enterprises that are good at high-end products will also pay attention to Hainan market. In this year, central enterprises such as China Resources and China shipping have become frequent customers in Hainan's local auction market. In August this year, China Resources won 36.5 mu of residential land in Haikou pobopo Lane shed transformation area with 820 million yuan, and Zhonghai 1.05 billion yuan took 44 Mu residential land in pobopo Lane shed transformation area, with the floor price of both plots exceeding 11000 yuan / square meter; the floor slab price of Haikou Binjiang New City photographed by China Resources was more than 8000 yuan / m2.

From the comparison of land supply, demand and land price in Hainan from October 2014 to October 2020, it can be seen that the removal of commercial housing in Hainan is not fast. In addition to the fact that the land supply area and transaction area were almost the same in 2016-2018, the trend of Hainan Province from 2014-2015 to 2019-2020 is that supply exceeds demand.

It is worth mentioning that Hainan's second-hand housing market has seen a rise in volume and a drop in price, and investors' selling signs are looming, which leads to convergence in Sanya. In October, the province's supply of 660400 square meters decreased by 51.07% month on month, of which Haikou 244900 square meters, Dongfang 128900 square meters and Danzhou 114900 square meters were the main contribution cities; the volume of 662100 square meters, an increase of 14.53% on a month on month basis, the price of 15308 yuan / square meters, a month on month decrease of 0.61%, and the transaction amount of 10.135 billion yuan, an increase of 13.83%.

However, from January to October of 2020, the total supply of commercial residential buildings in Hainan is 6.2708 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.37%; the total transaction volume is 4.5509 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 31.12%; the average transaction price is 15397 yuan / m2, up 7.94% year-on-year. The transaction amount was 70.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.65%.

In October 2020, Hainan's supply-demand ratio is 1, the market inventory is flat compared with the previous month, which is 18.8 million square meters, and the de chemical cycle is 40 months.

Therefore, the market share change of large real estate enterprises is very obvious. From January to October this year, among the top 10 commercial residential areas in Haikou, the sales area of the top 10 Housing enterprises accounted for 50%, and 76.9% in the same period last year. In Sanya, there is also a trend of market share reduction of large real estate enterprises: from January to October of 2020, the top 10 real estate enterprises accounted for only 15.68% of the top 10 registered area of commercial residential buildings, while in the same period of last year, the number was 41.42%.

However, Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, points out that Hainan's recent investment index is on the rise. From the development and investment data, Hainan has seen a significant decline in the second half of 2018, that is, the development investment data, which shows that the real estate industry is slightly depressed and there is a certain pressure. However, the recent data has actually narrowed the decline, and even began to show signs of turning positive. For example, in September this year, Hainan's development investment reached a peak of 86 billion yuan in the whole year. Since June, Hainan's investment and development amount has increased by more than 10 billion yuan a month. Yan Yuejin believes that the coldest cycle of Hainan's real estate development and investment market has passed, and there is a chance to rebound in the future. Especially this year, the land supply in Hainan is active, and the sales of existing houses make the development cycle of real estate enterprises longer and require higher capital for enterprises. From the perspective of the rising investment and development data, it is not ruled out that Hainan will let the market shuffle automatically through such regulation and control. After the real estate enterprises with high capital pressure quit, the real estate enterprises with capital strength to do high-end products gradually enter the market.